福尔摩斯：基本演绎法第一季

How Trump's 2024 Bid & Jan 6 Committee's Effort to Delegitimize Him May Pan Out_我的网站

一 |     "I think it would be best for President Trump to hold-back on an early announcement," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group. "An early announcement may be a distraction from the very critical mid-term Congressional races and provide a mechanism to mobilize the Democratic base. Currently, it looks as if there will be a landslide of historic proportions resulting in a 'Red Tidal Wave' switching both the House and the Senate to a sizable Republican majority.",Politico and the Washington Post reported last week that Trump had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential Trump 2024 campaign. The Post quoted one Trump ally who, speaking on conditions of anonymity, put the odds at “70-30 he announces [his presidential bid] before the midterms.” Others did not rule out that he may announce it sooner than September.,"My own view is that President Trump would better campaign for the candidates he is supporting," explained Rasmussen. "This would give extra attention to the importance of local races; provide his support to the congressional candidates while at the same time getting visibility nationwide without the focus on himself. This could be very positive for the Republican Party and the Trump movement.",Meanwhile, 49% of Republicans place Trump at the top of their list of potential presidential candidates, with Florida Governor Rick DeSantis sitting on 25%, noted US political analyst Don DeBar.,Similarly, a poll by Morning Consult/Politico released on June 29 indicated that Trump has maintained his position among GOP voters, with the majority saying they'd vote for him in a 2024 Republican presidential primary. At the same time, candidates who have either been endorsed or supported by Trump were largely successful during the GOP primaries.,"Should the economy continue to tumble downward, and if the war in Ukraine continues to induce fear of a global conflagration, Republicans may find Trump invaluable, if not indispensable, in capturing both houses of Congresses and a number of state legislatures as well," said DeBar.,Poll: Biden's Economic Approval Rating at 30%, Lower Than Nadirs for Trump and ObamaYesterday, 16:59 GMT,Dems Seeking to Reinvigorate Bases,Democratic strategists are hoping a Trump pre-midterm announcement might help Democrats galvanize their base.,"The American electorate is highly polarized by party, and a combination of a five year wall-to-wall media campaign attacking Trump, along with constant legal and procedural attacks by Democrats, the 'intelligence community' and other organs of what has become known as 'the deep state' has placed him in the role of public enemy number one in the eyes of Democrats," explained DeBar.,This situation, along with Trump's popularity among Republicans and the loss of legitimacy of GOP establishment politicians, "has also created a deep cleavage within that party along the lines of pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republican officials," according to the political analyst.,"As for energizing Democrats to come out and vote against those associated with Trump, clearly this is a part of the Democrat's strategy - the January 6 show hearings are prima facie evidence of this," he said. "But that is a strategy that has failed a number of times, beginning with the 2016 election. And the fact that Biden's numbers are at the same level as Richard Nixon's on the day before he resigned in disgrace means, absent some miraculous turnaround in the economy and a return to normalcy in eastern Europe, Democrats will go down in flames in the fall no matter the type or intensity of mobilization of their voters by any negative campaign based upon hatred of Trump.",House Jan. 6 Committee Subpoenas Secret Service Over Alleged Missing Text Messages on Capitol Breach16 July, 12:44 GMT,House Select Committee on Jan 6 Attack,The Dems apparently hope that the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 protests may throw sand in the gears of Trump and the Make America Great Again movement.,According to Politico, the panel's "much-anticipated hearing" will happen on Thursday. It is expected to feature former Trump White House press aide Sarah Matthews and former Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger. Moreover, committee members, aides and allies say that their investigations and hearings will continue past November, with the only "hard deadline" being January 3, 2023, "when Republicans likely take over the House," Politico reports.,"The committee is a circus!" said Rasmussen. "It is even more tragic than the [Special Counsel Robert] Mueller investigation. We have hundreds of people, many held without charges, being kept and tried as political prisoners. This is not about justice; it is criminal what is happening to patriotic people exercising their right to be heard with many being lured onto Capitol grounds. The hearings are a tragedy to our nation’s underlying values.",Rasmussen projects that the Dems "will try to drag the Committee hearings out as long as possible" even though they have not received the reaction that was sought for. The Democratic Party has a lot of failing policies and hearings apparently serve as a sort of distraction. The think tank executive vice president does not think that the Dem’s effort poses an obstacle for Trump, however, like the Mueller Investigation, it could provide additional challenges.,"Clearly, the January 6 Committee is attempting to do a (former President of Brazil) Lula on Trump - tie him up in criminal and other court proceedings to render him either legally or politically ineligible to run, in order to prevent him from winning another term," said DeBar.,However, the political analyst suggested that efforts to delegitimize Trump could prompt fierce resistance from his multi-million base. DeBar does not rule out that "if Trump is barred from running through a process that appears illegitimate in front of those voters, there is a real possibility that it could provoke an actual - and not play-pretend - insurrection, which could, in turn, lead to open civil war."。    Sophie 编译 今天早上，新西兰人在霜冻、降雪和刺骨的寒风中醒来，但大部分地区将迎来干燥、晴朗的天气。         新西兰国家水和大气研究所（Niwa）表示，全国正处于“冬季式的寒潮”中，昨晚极地气流使北岛中部地区的温度跌至零度以下，昨晚晚些时候北岛中部预计将出现降雪。         Advertise with us          MetService昨天发布了南岛四个山口的道路降雪预警，预计昨晚夜间将有高达5厘米的降雪。

二 |          与此同时，奥克兰的气温预计将在夜间降至6摄氏度，今晚降至4摄氏度。今天白天天气晴朗，有寒冷的南风，最高气温为17摄氏度。         周五早上也可能出现霜冻。MetService将较冷的气温归因于一系列横扫全国的冷锋和刺骨的偏南风。         MetService气象学家John Law表示，奥克兰可能会出现霜冻，并解释说，晴朗的夜空和寒风创造了“完美条件”，使气温低于平均水平。         展望周末，周六晚上，奥克兰的气温可能降至5摄氏度，周日的夜间最低气温为7摄氏度。周六的最高气温预计为15摄氏度，周日将为16摄氏度。这两天都会有晴朗的天空和南风。

三 |          谈到北岛的降雪，Law说：“如果你明天身处霍克斯湾，向西面的山丘望去，你可能会看到一层薄雪。”          此前，Taumarunui周三早晨气温为零下4摄氏度，陶波当天早晨气温为零下2摄氏度。在南岛，基督城人醒来时气温为零下3摄氏度，Timaru为零下2摄氏度，皇后镇则为零下1摄氏度。         Niwa表示，这是“雪季的快速开始”，并表示周五将是“一年中这个时候非常寒冷的一天”。         今晚，南岛Westland周围裸露的地方可能会有大风，风速或达80公里/小时。

四 | 明天早上惠灵顿和Marlborough附近也可能有大风。         Crown Range Rd、Lewis山口、SH7号公路、Arthur’s山口、SH73号公路和Porters山口（下图）昨晚都有道路降雪预警。MetService向司机发出警告，“在潮湿的道路和能见度低的地方要安全驾驶，请多加小心。”          MetService气象学家Mmathapelo Makgabutlane表示，今年5月与去年形成了鲜明对比。

五 |          “许多人可能还记得2023年5月的温暖气温，奥克兰和汉密尔顿等地经历了破纪录的暖和的夜晚。然而，今年，预计奥克兰的夜间气温将降至个位数左右，汉密尔顿清晨的气温将徘徊在零度附近。”          奥克兰未来7天天气预报如下：          更多全国地区天气请点击MetService官网查看。         相关阅读：          寒流来袭！部分地区将跌至0℃以下          注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。         chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有          (责编：Sophie)          相关内容                Ponsonby枪击案：嫌疑人为帮派成员，受害者姓名公布           突发！Ponsonby枪击案嫌疑男子死亡！           Ponsonby枪击案：警方公布嫌疑人姓名           既当国会议员又当地区议员，他拿两份薪水，总理表示“不接受”，结果……           视频：Ponsonby枪击发生两分钟后，闭路电视拍到嫌犯离开的画面           新西兰约2500名医生今起罢工25小时           奥克兰一位妈妈出门洗衣服，3个月大的儿子殒命，是爸爸谋杀的？           寒流来袭！部分地区将跌至0℃以下。

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